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The Central Blue welcomes back Wing Commander Trav Hallen, along with United States Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Clayton Aune in this week’s hard-hitting piece on good ideas. Wing Commander Hallen and Lieutenant Colonel Aune hold nothing back in demonstrating the importance in changing Air Forces’ mindsets towards what is a good idea, where they come from, and why we need them now more than ever before. The pair also illustrate how change is already starting, and how members from all allied Air Forces can and should engage with this emerging cognitive change. Air power professionals love technology, and that can be a problem. When they talk about the future of air power, airmen and airwomen often default to a description of machines and algorithms. Many, though not all, see and describe the future of air power as doing the same things with newer, smarter, and/or faster toys. Seeing the future solely as an update in the tools without a re-evaluation of what is being built and why is a failure of imagination. More importantly, an overly tech-centric vision of the future of air power will not allow force designers to create the air forces the United States and its allies and partners need to meet the challenges that will be faced by tomorrow’s airmen and airwomen. The reason is simple. States that threaten the stability of the international rules-based order are rapidly reducing the technological advantage Western militaries have long enjoyed, while simultaneously investing in disruptive technologies to open up novel areas for their advantage. If the Western response remains tech-centric, its militaries will lock themselves in a symmetric and predictable race that will be costly and which they may lose. Yet, this appears to be the default option. As the US House of Representatives’ Future of Defense Task Force put it: “The United States must recognize that without a new commitment to achieving technological superiority, the successes of the 20th century...will no longer be assured.” Though technology will play a critical role in future military operations, technological superiority alone won’t guarantee success. The pursuit of new technology must be complemented and informed by an equivalent investment in new ideas and concepts that challenge the way Western militaries conceive of air power and its employment. They need to reassess every assumption and reimagine the future of air power. In the words of the co-chairs of the Future of Defense Task Force: “Unless we make drastic changes, we will lose.” The United States Air Force (USAF) is aware of the need to change and the risks of adhering to old ideas, concepts, and practices. The new Chief of Staff (CSAF), General Charles Q. Brown, Jr., made his direction clear in Accelerate Change of Lose: If we fail to adapt to the changes in the strategic environment, a large and growing body of evidence suggests that we risk losing in great power competition, a high-end fight, quality Airmen [and airwomen], our credibility, and the ability to secure our future. If we are to succeed, we must accelerate the change necessary for us to remain the most dominant and respected Air Force in the world. Translating CSAF’s intent into action is one of the key tasks of the Conceptual Design teams within the USAF A5/7 Strategy, Integration, and Requirements directorate—to which we (the authors) belong. One of our key tasks is to develop novel and disruptive concepts of air power to inform future force design. Traditionally, the US military looked inside its own borders for those ideas. And that’s a failure. An inwards focus limits the diversity of perspectives and the creativity of the solutions developed. More to the point, the United States has never fought a major war by itself and is unlikely to do so in the future. As the 2018 US National Defense Strategy states: ‘[e]very day, our allies and partners join with us in defending freedom, deterring war, and maintaining the rules which underwrite a free and open international order.’ So it makes little sense that the USAF would ignore the diversity of thought and perspective that is available from the airmen and airwomen who would fight alongside their US colleagues as members of a future combined force. In envisioning the future force, the USAF needs to internationalise the contest of ideas of what the future of air power should be. It needs to shift from a World Series to a World Cup mindset. Expanding the contest of ideas is exactly what the A5/7 is doing, starting with a shift in the organisation’s mindset. The first step is to correct the pop culture presentation or military lore belief as to the origins of the good ideas. The best ideas and insights are not the exclusive domain of high rank, the subject matter experts, or those holding influential positions. It was U.S. Navy Captain Francis Low, then leading the Navy’s anti-submarine warfare efforts, who co-conceived the famous Doolittle Raid. He saw a picture of heavy bombers attacking an aircraft carrier and was inspired to reverse the image to have bigger bombers launch from aircraft carriers. While he co-developed the concept with Jimmy Doolittle, Captain Low receives almost no credit for the disruptive concept. To be clear senior officers, subject matter experts, and specialist organizations are and will continue to be an excellent source of creative and insightful ideas. However, to assume that the great ideas can only come from these individuals and areas is simply wrong. Worse, to believe that only the experienced experts within your organisation are worth listening to is hubris and limits organisational creativity in potentially dangerous ways. We need to go where the good ideas are, regardless of their source. The development of digital military, strategy, and national security forums, such as The Central Blue, The Wavell Room, and The Forge, has created a wealth of opportunity to find new, unique, and challenging ideas that draw on a vast array of perspectives and experiences to create different solutions to common problems. Unfortunately, this has long been an untapped resource for the USAF. Though the scale and capability differ between nations’ air forces, the fundamentals of air power are universal. Further, no single country, service, or career field has a monopoly on good ideas. Arguably, those with “less” will uncover more creative concepts as they lack the mass to simply steamroll an adversary. As the New Zealand-born Nobel Prize winning scientist, Ernest Rutherford said: “We’ve got no money, so we’ve got to think.” So, it makes sense for US strategists to engage more actively with their allies and partners to generate novel insights into the future of air power. But it’s not enough to just solicit suggestions and find ideas. That input must reach an audience that is both willing to be persuaded, and that has the authority to implement change. For U.S. decision makers who are used to dominating the contest of ideas, this may involve eating some humble pie. As former U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis, said at the annual USAF Air Force Association conference in 2017: “We must do more than to listen to our allies, we must be willing to be persuaded by them...Not all the great ideas come from the nation with the most aircraft carriers.” Or to put this into air power lingo; the most stealth doesn’t make you the most right or most creative. To seize the opportunity that engaged and creative allied thinking presents, the USAF needs to engage and empower emerging and disruptive air power thinkers, regardless of nationality, to have those ideas heard. Empowerment is one of the key themes of General Brown’s Accelerate Change or Lose, as he believes that ‘empowered airmen [and airwomen] can solve any problem’. And he doesn’t just mean US airmen and airwomen. In the section headed ‘Good Enough Today Will Fail Tomorrow’, General Brown states that the USAF ‘should expand [its] network of like-minded Airmen [and airwomen] from around the world, leveraging our common perspective against shared threats to present multiple dilemmas to our competitors and adversaries.’ In which case, a multinational contest of ideas which challenges and redefines a collective vision of what the future of combined air power could be is just common sense. This approach will allow the U.S., its allies and partners to improve and potentially revolutionize the future of air power. Failing to seize on this opportunity cedes the initiative to potential adversaries. So, the A5/7 aims to expand the contest of ideas by engaging the air power professionals of friendly air forces. A step in the right direction will be to start mentoring. By creating a network across allies and partners that connects strategists and air power thinkers, friendly air forces can leverage differences in perspective in mutually beneficial ways. It is easy to envisage a senior USAF strategist mentoring an emerging RAAF thinker to refine their ideas on how the future of human-machine teaming changes the concept of domain superiority. Similarly, it is conceivable for a RAAF mentor to help an emerging USAF strategist to develop ideas on how naval, land, and air forces can exploit autonomous technology to force package across multiple domains in order to generate mass in the littoral. A mentoring network such as this will not only diversify and improve the contest of ideas, but it will also provide a solid foundation for building relationships of trust and mutual understanding across the future combined force. The A5/7 sees the potential benefits this offers both the USAF and its allied and partner air forces. They have set about creating that very network of emerging and established air power thinkers and strategists across the US and friendly militaries. The basic materials already exist: official air-power think-tanks and unofficial online-outlets, such as this one, are attracting a growing number of engaged and energetic air power thinkers. All that is lacking is the connections to link a multinational network that can empower emerging thinkers and their ideas. It is time to start tapping that resource. By developing the means and mechanisms which empower the good ideas being developed across the United States and friendly countries we can reimagine the future of air power. These ideas and insights will complement and inform both the investment in, and development of, the technology that will continue to hold the fascination of air power professionals. Through the blend of creative concepts and leading-edge technology, we can improve the design of the future force to enable it to compete and fight in new and unexpected ways. The USAF A5/7 is listening and is keen to be persuaded. Let’s start changing the future of combined air power. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and should not be construed as carrying the official sanction of the U.S. Department of Defense, United States Air Force, Australian Department of Defence, Royal Australian Air Force, or other agencies or departments of the U.S. or Australian governments. Lieutenant Colonel Clayton Aune is the Chief of Operating Concepts Branch in the USAF A5/7 Strategy, Integration, and Requirements directorate. He is a graduate of the Secretary of Defense Strategic Thinkers Program hosted by Johns Hopkins University – School of Advanced International Studies. Lt Col Aune is a special operations pilot with over 1,200 combat and 3,400 total flight hours spanning three major weapons systems. Wing Commander Trav Hallen is the RAAF exchange strategist in the Combined Airpower Futures Team of the USAF A5/7 Strategy, Integration, and Requirements directorate. He is a graduate of the USAF School of Advanced Air and Space Studies and a Sir Richard Williams Foundation Air Power Scholar. WGCDR Hallen was one of the founding editors of The Central Blue.

Dr Robbin Laird, Joint by Design: The Evolution of Australian Defence Strategy. 24 December 2020 Link to book details Joint by Design: The Evolution of Australian Defence Strategy - Second Line of Defense (sldinfo.com) Available on Amazon. You can also purchase directly through the SLDINFO website for 30% off if you use the code: Williams. This is the second book in our 21st Century Global Change Series. In the midst of the COVID-19 crisis, the prime minister of Australia, Scott Morrison, launched a new defense and security strategy for Australia. This strategy reset puts Australia on the path of enhanced defense capabilities. The change represents a serious shift in its policies towards China, and in reworking alliance relationships going forward. As one senior RAAF officer put it: “The Prime Minister of Australia, the Honorable Scott Morrison, has launched the Defense Strategic Update, which moved Australia’s defense policy away from a globally-balanced approach under our Defense White Paper of 2016, towards a more regionally focused posture, founded in the principles of shape, deter, and respond. The new policy approach places great emphasis on the need for our forces to be well integrated, both internally to Australia, and across our strategic partners. ” Joint by Design is focused on Australian policy, but it is about preparing liberal democracies around the world for the challenges of the future. The strategic shift from land wars to full spectrum crisis management requires liberal democracies to have forces lethal enough, survivable enough, and agile enough to support full spectrum crisis management. The book provides an overview of the evolution of Australian defence modernization over the past seven years, and the strategic shift underway to do precisely that. Although this is a book about Australia, it is about the significant shift facing the liberal democracies in meeting the challenge of dealing with the 21st century authoritarian powers. In this sense, the volume is very complimentary to our book the return of direct defense in Europe, a book that concludes with a chapter that highlights the Australian contribution to the rethinking going on in Europe about direct defense. The book is based on the bi-annual Williams Foundation seminars held since 2014, and include insights and presentations by Australians and several key allies of Australia. In that sense, the book provides an Australian-led allied rethink with regard to how to meet 21st century defense challenges. The two books read together provide a good overview of where key allies are with regard to rethinking defense certa 2020. As Anne Borzycki, Director of the Institute of Integrated Economic Research – Australia, has highlighted: “Dr Robbin Laird brings a unique perspective to his analysis of the journey the Australian Defence Force (ADF) has been on over the last six years. As an American, and also a European resident, he understands the military and strategic realities of Europe and the United States and is therefore able to place Australia, as a modern middle-power, into the spectrum of Western Liberal Democracies. And importantly, this book highlights the lessons that Europe and the United States could learn from Australia as the first quarter of the 21st century draws to a close. “This book is a modern history that begins in 2014. The year 2014 might seem recent – however given the upheavals wrought upon the world by changing global power dynamics, national domestic political challenges, military transformations and finally, the pandemic – it could just as well be 60, not 6, years ago.” And Andrew Carr, Senior Lecturer, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University noted in a recent review: “Joint by Design offers a valuable overview of how Australia’s defence force has been evolving, innovating and adapting. It tells a story that is typically only ever seen by the public in piecemeal. A new piece of equipment here, or training and doctrinal changes there. In Joint by Design, Robbin Laird shows, through dozens of interviews with the main participants, how these various parts all fit together. “This book is therefore an important contribution to our understanding of both Australian defence policy now operates, but also how western armed forces are changing in light of the growing threat of the new authoritarians such as Russia and China. As such, it should be of interest to those concerned with the nature of modern warfare, security trends in Asia, and the evolution of western armed forces.” The book can be found in hardback, paperback and e-book versions on most book sellers worldwide.

Recently, Dr Laird continued his discussion with Brendan Sargeant, the well-known and well-regarded Australian strategist about how best to understand the challenge posed by the regime of President Xi to Australia and the Indo-Pacific region. Dr Laird focused on how Brendan Sargeant would characterize the nature and focus of the strategy of the Xi regime as a Communist Authoritarian state and then focused on how Australia was responding to this strategy. This raised the question then of how the allies of Australia, notably the United States, and Europe and most significantly the states of the Indo-Pacific were responding to the Xi regime policies and strategy. Link to full article in Second Line of Defense Dr Robbin Laird is a Williams Foundation Fellow

Second Line of Defense have published our latest book which is entitled, Joint By Design: The Evolution of Australian Defence Strategy. In the midst of the COVID-19 crisis, the prime minister of Australia, Scott Morrison, launched a new defense and security strategy for Australia. This strategy reset puts Australia on the path of enhanced defense capabilities. The change represents a serious shift in its policies towards China, and in reworking alliance relationships going forward. As one senior RAAF officer put it: “The Prime Minister of Australia, the Honorable Scott Morrison, has launched the Defense Strategic Update, which moved Australia’s defense policy away from a globally-balanced approach under our Defense White Paper of 2016, towards a more regionally focused posture, founded in the principles of shape, deter, and respond. The new policy approach places great emphasis on the need for our forces to be well integrated, both internally to Australia, and across our strategic partners. ” Joint by Design is focused on Australian policy, but it is about preparing liberal democracies around the world for the challenges of the future. The strategic shift from land wars to full spectrum crisis management requires liberal democracies to have forces lethal enough, survivable enough, and agile enough to support full spectrum crisis management. The book provides an overview of the evolution of Australian defence modernization over the past seven years, and the strategic shift underway to do precisely that. Although this is a book about Australia, it is about the significant shift facing the liberal democracies in meeting the challenge of dealing with the 21st century authoritarian powers. In this sense, the volume is very complimentary to our book the return of direct defense in Europe, a book that concludes with a chapter that highlights the Australian contribution to the rethinking going on in Europe about direct defense. The book is based on the bi-annual Williams Foundation seminars held since 2014, and include insights and presentations by Australians and several key allies of Australia. In that sense, the book provides an Australian-led allied rethink with regard to how to meet 21st century defense challenges. The two books read together provide a good overview of where key allies are with regard to rethinking defense certa 2020. As Anne Borzycki, Director of the Institute of Integrated Economic Research – Australia, has highlighted: “Dr Robbin Laird brings a unique perspective to his analysis of the journey the Australian Defence Force (ADF) has been on over the last six years. As an American, and also a European resident, he understands the military and strategic realities of Europe and the United States and is therefore able to place Australia, as a modern middle-power, into the spectrum of Western Liberal Democracies. And importantly, this book highlights the lessons that Europe and the United States could learn from Australia as the first quarter of the 21st century draws to a close. “This book is a modern history that begins in 2014. The year 2014 might seem recent – however given the upheavals wrought upon the world by changing global power dynamics, national domestic political challenges, military transformations and finally, the pandemic – it could just as well be 60, not 6, years ago.” This book was released on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Kobo on December 22, 2020 in e book form with the paperback and hardback to be released in two months. Links Second Line of Defense Dr Robbin Laird is a Williams Foundation Fellow

For the first post of 2021, The Central Blue welcomes Squadron Leader Matt Kelly to provide some timely advice for our Air Force readers about to commence Australian Command and Staff College. The opinions expressed are his alone and do not represent the views of the Royal Australian Air Force, the Australian Defence Force, or the Australian Government. Congratulations! You’ve just been told that you’ll be attending the Australian Command and Staff Course (ACSC) next year. For some this is excellent news, another step in your carefully planned career. For others this is an unusual surprise, as you hadn’t applied and you’re now in a state of mild confusion. Either way, you need to start preparing. For a comprehensive overview of the course, have a look at Dan Ellis’ article on the Chesterfield Strategy. My intent is to add a ‘blue shade’ to the conversation, with the caveat that this is based on my own experience as a student undertaking ACSC in 2020. Results may vary. Academic Preparation Many of you will be tempted to dive in and start reading tomes from Clausewitz, Sun Tzu etc. The reality is that you don’t need to do any of this beforehand, as there will be plenty of time to read on course. Having said that, I had been reading The Strategist and The Central Blue and listening to The Dead Prussian for a few years prior, which I think helped as a lead-in to the course. If you’re brand new to this world, have a look at COMADC's latest reading list for ideas to get you started. With access available to the ACSC ADELE website around Oct-Nov the year prior to course commencement, anytime from here is a good point to understand what academic requirements stand in front of you. I would consider familiarising yourself with college Standing Orders, do the ANU academic module (even if you’ve studied before – as the ANU has a very prescriptive essay structure that you’ll need to master), then enjoy your Christmas break. Buy yourself a second monitor for your laptop (trust me - you’ll thank me later), and strap yourself in for the year ahead. RAAF Pre-courses The RAAF offers two preparatory courses for ACSC: the Air Practitioner in a Joint Environment (APJE) course delivered by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), and the Advanced Air Power Course (AAPC) delivered by the Air and Space Power Centre. Both are valuable in different ways, but not in the ways you might think. The Air Practitioner in a Joint Environment (APJE) course is an insightful two-week adventure where students are introduced to an array of world-class strategic thinkers. Students leave with a broader understanding of contemporary strategic issues, which will hold them in good stead for many of the ACSC modules. There’s even the opportunity to have an essay reviewed by an academic so students can get used to structuring their ideas in the ‘correct’ way. Ironically, what the APJE doesn’t comprehensively provide is guidance on how to be an air practitioner in a joint environment. To be fair, I don’t think this is something the RAAF can or should outsource to an organisation such as ASPI. From what I've seen, the RAAF could better prepare ACSC students by renaming the APJE to something more apt and developing an actual APJE course. This new course would fill a crucial gap; as many (most) of us have limited exposure to how air planning actually occurs owing to our limited RAAF-wide culture. Addressing this deficiency would not only help students on ACSC (where we are all expected to be air SMEs), it would also liberate ASPI to concentrate on the strategic area it knows best. The Advanced Air Power Course (AAPC) consists of 13 seminars (weekly topics consisting of readings and a forum post) and an essay, taking students on a journey from the beginnings of air power to an analysis on what the future might hold. I found the AAPC illuminating as I hadn’t delved into RAAF history as much as I should have, and from this perspective the AAPC provides a solid foundation we should all have as Air Force officers. In terms of preparation for ACSC, the AAPC is useful but not essential. Air power theory and history is mentioned sporadically throughout the course, but this is done at an introductory level to cater for all students (just as Air Force students will learn about land and sea power). However, it is essential that Air Force officers complete the AAPC at some stage to garner a historical understanding of their service. The Avocado Ok, so you have your second screen, did your pre-courses and you’re heading to Weston Creek for your first day. What can you expect? For those who have done joint postings before, the college will have the familiar ‘avocado’ feel i.e., a thin layer of purple with a lot of green (Army) underneath. I will add that the avocado is probably the most suitable model for a course such as ACSC. The finely tuned scheduling mixed with the size and diversity of the class cohort needs the rigorous attention to detail and structure that the Army does best. However, those new to the joint world will need to adapt to a couple of idiosyncrasies throughout the year. The first will be a sometimes-brusque form of satire that permeates the course through rituals such as ‘back-briefs’ and newsletters which aim to inject light-hearted banter to offset the stress of assignments. As is often the case in a melting pot of sub-cultures, some jokes can miss the mark, but in my experience, the quips are well-meaning and the ‘comedians’ are quick to offer an apology if offence is taken. The other notable aspect of the avocado is an underlying tension that comes from an element of the course treating the year as a competition against others. While this is not limited to one service, in my experience, most of this faction comes from our green brethren. To a degree this is understandable, as the end of course score plays a greater role in promotion deliberations than it does for us. The trick is for RAAF officers not to get swept up in the competition. If anything, keep an eye out for it, bring your popcorn and enjoy the show. It can be entertaining! Ride the Wave I agree with everything Dan says in his article on workload, family and general observations, so I won’t repeat his words in depth here. Find the routine that best works for you and your family and don’t get caught up in what others are doing. Build your networks and use them regularly (even if it is just to vent about the assignments or share memes). Above all, remember you’re being paid (well) to study full-time…how good is that? Does the RAAF prepare you sufficiently to undertake ACSC? I think so; however, time with the other Services can remind us that the RAAF needs to do more to instil a deep, inculcated ‘blueness’ into its officers. Where Army officers exude their ‘officer first, corps second’ mantra and Navy officers regale with their ‘whole of ship’ shenanigans, RAAF officers are conspicuously devoid of such Service-centric thinking. All in all, I encourage you to ride the ACSC wave and enjoy it while you can. Follow this advice and I guarantee that you’ll emerge in December much better for the year that was. You will have met some great people, thought plenty of deep thoughts, and laid the foundation for the next chapter in your career. And if nothing else, you now know what an avocado is.

Recently, Dr Laird had a chance to talk with Ross Babbage, a leading Australian strategist about the pressure Beijing is applying down-under. Australia and its close partners are looking to build a regional coalition to reinforce national resilience, better protect national sovereignty and encourage a change of course in Beijing. See full article in Second Line of Defense Dr Robbin Laird is a Williams Foundation Fellow

Toward the end of 2020, The Central Blue made a call for submissions to answer the question: #AFSTRAT – What is the Air Force Strategy? The series aimed to build on Australia’s long-standing tradition of commitment to strategic thought by inviting contributions from all parties - from any rank in any Defence or military, academia, think tanks or policy commentators. Contributors were asked to provide their perspectives on AFSTRAT; specifically, if and how it will ensure the Royal Australian Air Force generates sustainable and resilient air and space power within the Joint Force. These longer contributions (of up to 2,000 words) were published on our website. This call for submission aims to focus on the question: How can you help make the #AFSTRAT a reality? We are not looking for long, essay-style submissions but rather shorth, pithy responses - no longer than 250 words. Contributions will be accepted until the end of February with submissions published in early 2021.

With the European Commission spearheaded a closer relationship with China, the gap — not just geographical — between Australia and Europe is clearly growing. Robbin's own recently published book on the evolution of Australian defence strategy highlights the shift from the away game to the home game for the Aussies. The focus is clearly upon the Indo-Pacific and the Chinese reworking of the global rules of engagement and stepping up a wide ranging challenge to the liberal democracies. See the full article in Second Line of Defense

Brian Weston 'On Target - 'A new challenge - operational presence and persistence!' in Australian Defence Business Review, Nov/Dec 2020 p 84 A theme emerging from recent On Target columns is that while the RAAF has evolved into a potent middle-weight air force suited to operations in the nearer Indo-Pacific region, the current capability ‒ and indeed the broader ADF capability ‒ may be stretched if required to sustain a high tempo of operations for lengthy periods. Yet, the need to maintain such operations for lengthy periods is typical of the nature of military operations in times of great power competition and tension. First, in times of great power competition, competing nations often find it useful to place markers ‘in the sand’ which clearly identify the issues and interests considered to be a vital national interest. Second, by placing such markers, a nation can issue unambiguous warnings to strategic competitors which indicate that actions or expansion beyond those markers will violate a nation’s vital strategic interests, and are unacceptable. Indeed when, in a speech in January 1950, US Secretary of State Dean Acheson failed to include Korea within its strategic interests, both China and the Soviet Union concluded the US would not go to war over Korea. Soon after, South Korea was invaded. So, placing markers without clear messaging or resolve may not deter further confrontation, while messaging of resolve alone also might achieve little – unless the messaging is reinforced by more substantial actions such as precautionary military activities. Typically, these activities will be non-provocative, such as by committing to a low-key but persistent military presence, accompanied by patrol and surveillance operations. These operations not only signal resolve, but might also provide the information upon which appropriate intelligence assessments can be made to ensure a nation might not be strategically deceived or operationally out-manoeuvred. But while these persistent presence activities may deter further open transgression and confrontation, they may not deter a strategic competitor from initiating activities such as a ‘grey zone’ conflict, or asymmetric warfare, as a means of prosecuting a strategic agenda. In the Indo-Pacific, it is not difficult to conceive of scenarios that must be confronted with not only determined and skilled diplomacy, but also by the deployment of operational military forces that lay down the markers in the sand. A further characteristic of these operations is that they may be required for extended periods across a vast operational theatre on a scale larger than the deployment of one frigate or one AEW&C aircraft, as has been sustained until recently by Australia in the Middle East. Forward-deployed presence and patrol forces alone may be inadequate to signify both the resolve and capability of a nation to defend its vital national interests. Therefore, some military ‘stiffening’ may be required to ensure a nation’s concerns are not lightly dismissed. That stiffening usually requires more substantial combat capabilities being brought on to a heightened alert state and deployed to supporting locations sufficiently well-located to provide a credible deterrence. This column has outlined in detail why Australia ‒ hopefully supported by regional allies ‒ should be well-prepared to sustain substantial military presence and patrol operations in Australia’s nearer, Indo- Pacific region. The On Target column in the Sept-Oct 2020 issue of ADBR also noted the critical role Australian defence industry has in supporting and bolstering the RAAF’s ability to sustain significant, lengthy, possibly intense, presence and patrol operations. That column identified some questions: How best can Australian industry assist defence, especially air force, in generating the substantial and sustained increases in operational effort required in a nearer-term contingency in the Indo-Pacific? Is air force and industry so well integrated that industry can seamlessly shift gears when the air force tempo rises? How best can industry support sustained operational presence activities at forward and overseas bases? How can an Australian-based industry satisfy logistic shortages when global supply chains are stressed? What policy/legislative changes are needed to ensure defence industry civilians can deploy in the course of their duties to forward/operational areas? The next On Target column will move on to asking similar questions – how air force and navy can augment their sparse operational personnel establishments which would be sorely stretched in sustaining any significant, possibly intense, presence and patrol operations for any period of time. Brian Weston is a Board Member of the Sir Richard Williams Foundation. He served tours in Defence’s Force Analysis Division and the HQADF Force Development Planning Branch. Download pd f

In the release of the new Australian defence strategy on July 1, 2020, Prime Minister Morrison highlighted the important role which Senator Jim Molan plays in his thinking about defence. Recently, Senator Molan has launched a podcast series looking at the way ahead and how Australia might address the challenges which its faces. For the full article see Second Line of Defense Robbin Laird is a Williams Foundation Fellow

The Central Blue recently sought expressions of interest from passionate and dedicated Junior Officers, Enlisted and Australian Public Service (APS) to join The Central Blue Editorial Team as an Editorial Intern. TCB Editorial Team were so impressed by the number and caliber of candidates, we decided to select two! First-up; meet Corporal Amy Hestermann-Crane! Amy is the first Space Analyst in the Australian Space Operations Centre, and is very excited to be a part of Air Force’s increasing capabilities in this domain. Not only is she technically competent, she is an all-round great person as well who has recently been appointed to the ACT Ministerial Advisory Council for Veterans and their Families, which focuses on improving life and services for the ACT veteran community. Amy is also a Coordinator for the regional HQJOC Women’s Integrated Networking Groups (WINGS), a program which aims to provide opportunities for talented and capable Air Force women to be supported and encouraged so they can achieve a successful and engaging career in the organisation. In her free time, she studies two Bachelor degrees covering German, Latin, and Ancient History. She is also researching Space Ethics and is aspiring to be a writer. Her interests include space, AI, human/machine interfacing, and the potential ethical challenges that will arise as humanity moves into new and unexplored territory. She loves culture and languages, and how these can affect the way we think, interact, and influence the world around us. She is looking forward to sharing the fascinating (and sometimes terrifying) developments in these spaces with the TCB community. We would also like you to meet Mr Luke Webb! Luke is a Melbourne-based Project Manager at the Victorian Space Science Education Centre (VSSEC), a dedicated STEM facility with relationships with NASA, ESA and JAXA. He is an aerospace engineer, obtaining his degree with First Class Honours in 2006 at RMIT University. Before VSSEC, Luke worked for the Civil Aviation Safety Authority in airworthiness engineering roles. Luke is also studiously working part-time on a PhD looking at complex service program management in the aircraft sustainment and support space, including a major case study on the Hawk Lead-In-Fighter. He has maintained a ‘dual-track’ technical/strategic affairs interest through his involvement in the Institute for Regional Security’s Future Strategic Leaders Program, including as one of the founders of the Institute's innovative ideas forum, Next, running the first event back in 2013. He is also the Secretary of the Royal Aeronautical Society Melbourne Branch and a casual academic at RMIT in the fields of Project Management, Aviation Quality Systems and Airworthiness. Welcome to the team Amy and Luke!

As we enter the final approach on the most astounding of years, we are also set to announce the inaugural winner of the Dr Alan Stephens Air Power Literary Prize. This year’s prize is given for the best essay or article to provide a novel perspective on the new Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) Strategy (#AFSTRAT). In determining a winner, The Central Blue editorial team looked for pieces that explored how the RAAF will ensure that it generates sustainable and resilient air and space power within the Joint Force. The Central Blue received a number of high calibre entries, with many varied and interesting themes. While there can only be one winner, we felt it particularly pertinent to turn a brief spotlight to a group of emerging authors from the Australian Defence Force Academy (ADFA) and their fresh contributions to the #AFSTRAT conversation. Being at only the beginning of their careers, these cadets offered a unique set of perspectives highly relevant to turning #AFSTRAT from a vision to reality. We were highly impressed with their endeavours to grapple with the conceptual challenges that face the RAAF. Emerging RAAF Thinkers Officer Cadet L. Kourinos and Officer Cadet I. Price raised several good points in their review of #AFSTRAT. They stated that the strategy 'has the potential to bring Air Force people together by proving a standard for our ‘why" and that it also presents a new 'opportunistic space' for the RAAF to transform itself into a 'potent integrated future fighting force.' They also raised some important, practical questions. Specifically; How would a junior officer go about implementing ‘jointness’ noting the challenge that 'junior leaders may lack the ability to effectively translate vision into their team structures.' The mismatch between innovative possibilities and reality was a key focus of analysis from Officer Cadet T. Beck and Officer Cadet C. Howard. In their assessment, the 2020 AFSTRAT functions as a 'visionary piece rather than an actionable plan,' one that needs significant efforts to implement in a “highly bureaucratic and hierarchical organisation”. It’s a point that AFSTRAT openly acknowledges, with 'the concept of innovation and creativity and the aim to reduce unnecessary administration and bureaucracy within the RAAF,' a key theme of the strategy. They closed by reflecting on their experiences as early career professionals, and their generation’s willingness to embrace new ideas and concepts. Whilst all ADFA contributions touched on the importance of cultural evolution, Officer Cadet Wendy Qu devoted her entire piece to this theme. She offered four central recommendations: utilising ADFA as a means to support the building of a strategic culture. supporting the concept of a learning organisation. considering wider environmental factors inhibiting an inclusive culture. implement further support mechanisms to supplement cultural intelligence. She recommends viewing ADFA as a 'critical learning ground for developing strategic acumen,' noting that it’s a training ground for raising a workforce of the future with skills and values that should be instilled from day one. She also raises the importance of cultural intelligence as a competitive advantage, with an emphasis on building an inclusive culture to enhance the RAAF’s posture of professionalism. This also includes acknowledging and responding appropriately to contemporary societal matters and its effects, such as rising escalations between the West and China, and how this might reflect upon Chinese-Australians’ view of the ADF. Prize Winner While there are a number of other stellar contributions which you can read on our webpage, we can only have one prize winner. We are pleased to announce the 2020 Dr Alan Stephens Air Power Literary Prize winner is Squadron Leader Chris Kourloufas. We could not go past his erudite piece on Creative Forces. With innovation a key theme of #AFSTRAT, his piece focuses on the messy, unpredictable, but essential competency of creativity as a key part of realising the vision of the strategy. His article dismantled the realities of creative success and highlights the necessity of failure tolerance – a proposition which can be hard to accept with military pursuits because 'many lessons are paid for in blood.' To realise the vision of #AFSTRAT, isolated solutions will no longer be enough. Cross-domain creativity is vital for lasting long-term impact and to fully realise the potential that exists within the organisation. He argued that the RAAF must also ensure that people know that their actions matter, no matter how small the idea. To embrace the notion of being a ‘Creative Force’, military organisations need to strive for an environment that dispenses with ‘dangerous comfort’ and embrace a culture of psychological safety and disruptive innovation. He sums this up with a great quote from Major General (Ret.) Duncan Lewis AO DSC CSC: Your first responsibility as a leader is to create atmosphere. We congratulate Squadron Leader Kourloufas on his winning article. Looking to 2021 and Beyond Despite the troubles that have emerged in 2020, we’re looking to 2021 with excitement as we celebrate 100 years of the RAAF. It has been a monumental Century, with much to be remembered and celebrated. At The Central Blue, we are also turning our attention to the next 100 years. What will the RAAF look like in 2121? What lessons from the past 100 years can we apply to the next 100? How do we build and grow people for the future Force? We will have more specific invitations for contributions in the new year, but in the meantime, we encourage prospective contributors to think along these lines in preparing articles for next year.